Gamba Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus 23/09/2020 Match Preview

Gamba Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus
J1 2020 Round 18
Panasonic Stadium Suita
Wednesday 23 September 19:00 (JST)

We’re officially into the second half of the 2020 campaign after squeezing in 16 rounds in under 3 months! If this season’s schedule is taking a heavy toll on you, don’t worry you’re not alone. Hopefully this preview can give you all the information you need ahead of this battle between two of J1’s perennial heavyweights.

The Lowdown

The current J1 standings show Nagoya in 4th spot after taking 30 points from 16 matches, Gamba are 5 places and 4 points worse off than their visitors, but crucially both sides have a number of games in hand over most of their rivals so are in with a real shout of securing ACL football next year. Grampus’ impressive form under the previously much-maligned Italian Massimo Ficcadenti has been one of the surprises of the year and Gamba’s 2-2 draw in Aichi in round 3 looks better and better with each passing week.

After announcing themselves as creditable contenders with a 1-0 win over runaway leaders Kawasaki back on August 23rd (to date they are still the only team to beat Frontale this year), Nagoya have suffered a dip in form with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their next 5 league matches as well as being dumped out of the Levain Cup, 3-0 at the hands of FC Tokyo. They’ve picked up a respectable 14 points on the road this year, just 3 shy of Gamba’s total with both sides having played 8 away games. With that said though, their only road win at top half opposition was on their last trip to Osaka when they upset Cerezo 2-0 at Nagai Stadium a mere 4 days after their 2-2 draw at home to Gamba.

Gamba will be desperate to put their home woes behind them having now lost 4 in a row on their own turf. As I seem to say every week on this blog, getting the first goal will be crucial, Gamba are unbeaten in 2020 when they’ve led at any time in a game. However, Nagoya are one of only two teams to have come from behind to earn a point against Gamba this year, Kashima being the other.

With this being a three matchday week, rotation is to be expect, although these two sides have perhaps switched things up less than many other teams. It’ll be interesting to see if Grampus’ summer signing from Gamba, Oh Jae-suk makes an appearance, while the popular Hiroyuki Abe will surely get a pleasant reception if he takes the field. The two goal-scorers for Nagoya in the 2-2 draw back in July, Mateus and Gabriel Xavier should again pose the greatest threat to Gamba’s rearguard, though both Naoki Maeda and Mu Kanazaki must be kept an eye on too. Gamba supporters would love to see Takashi Usami return to goalscoring form, he’s found the back of the net just once in his last 9 outings. Usami’s good friend Yosuke Ideguchi has been in excellent form in midfield, but I can’t be the only one fretting over his fitness as with Yajima and Ono already out, the loss of the Japan international would be catastrophic for the Nerazzurri.

Head to Head

This is the second clash between these two this season with the first taking place just over two months ago on July 8th at Toyota Stadium. Genta Miura gave Gamba an early lead, but this was quickly cancelled out after strikes from Mateus and Gabriel Xavier, before Kazuma Watanabe earned the men from Suita a share of the spoils with an equaliser in additional time at the end of the game.

As you can see in the table below, Grampus have an excellent recent record in this fixture, winning 3-2 in both of their previous two trips to Suita. We have to go back to 2016, the year Nagoya were relegated to J2, to find Gamba’s last triumph.

I’ve never actually seen a Gamba vs Nagoya game live at the stadium, so my strongest memory is Nagoya’s 1-0 win at Expo 70’ Memorial Stadium back in August 2014 which was the only home defeat Gamba suffered in the second half of that memorable year. Leandro Domingues got the winner late on and since then I’ve always had it in my head that Grampus are a real bogey team for Gamba.

Team News

Gamba Osaka

The big concern for Gamba is captain Genta Miura limping off in the second half of Saturday’s game with Sapporo with what looked like a leg muscle injury. It’s unknown how long he’ll be out for, but at least there is a lot of cover in his position. Yuji Ono (knee) is done for the year and Shinya Yajima (ankle) has missed the past 4 matches, no date has been set for his return. If Gamba continue to use the 4-4-2 formation, we could see Keisuke Kurokawa promoted from the U23s to compete for a slot at left-back while Yuya Fukuda will become a viable option on the left wing or in central midfield. Kantoku Miyamoto has said that we can expect to see Shoji Toyama in the top team at some point this year, but it’ll probably be next month at the earliest.

Nagoya Grampus

Attacking midfielder Aria Jasour Hasegawa is a long term absentee with a broken leg. Right-back Kazuya Miyahara should be over his bout of COVID-19, but after being first choice in 2019, he’s been completely out of the picture this time out. Versatile midfielder Ryota Aoki missed the whole of last campaign and briefly returned this year, but has now disappeared from the matchday squad, I can’t find any confirmation of whether he’s injured again or just out of favour.

Predicted Line Ups

I’m going with the assumption that Miyamoto will stick with 4-4-2, especially if, as seems likely, Miura won’t be fit enough to play. Should he opt for 3-5-2 then we should see Takao slot in alongside Shoji and Kim at centre-back, Onose and either Fujiharu, Fukuda or Kurokawa will take up the wing back spots. In central-midfield Yuki Yamamoto will again be the anchor with Ideguchi and Kurata ahead of him and Usami will be partnered in attack by either (in order of likelihood), Ademilson, Watanabe or Patric.

Kantoku Massimo Ficcadenti favours a 4-2-3-1 formation and has shown little desire to rotate his troops any more than necessary. It’s possible that left-back Yutaka Yoshida could switch to the right to accommodate ex-Tokyo man Kosuke Ota on the left. In midfield Sho Inagaki, probably one of the best transfers of winter 2019/20, has been an ever present, but Brazilian Joao Schmidt may partner him instead of Takuji Yonemoto. The attacking midfield roles have decent depth and dangerous former-Gamba title winner Hiroyuki Abe is an option just off Kanazaki while Yuki Soma may be selected on the left-wing, both Mateus and Gabriel Xavier can play on the right if any re-shuffle is required.

Match Prediction

It’s a tough one to call with so many factors up in the air in this unique COVID affected year. Nagoya are always a tough nut for Gamba to crack and it’ll be tougher than ever now that they seem to have pulled their socks up under Ficcadenti. Don’t be surprised to see Grampus leave Suita with all 3 points, but I’ll be positive and opt for a competitive 1-1 draw.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s