Gamba Osaka vs Kashima Antlers 3 October 2020 Match Preview

Gamba Osaka vs Kashima Antlers
J1 2020 Round 20
Panasonic Stadium Suita
Saturday 3 October 19:00 (JST)

The Lowdown

It’s crunch time for Gamba as they welcome Kashima Antlers to Panasonic Stadium in what will be the first of 5 games in the next 15 days. The rescheduled match at Tosu will follow this one, then there are encounters with FC Tokyo (a), Yokohama F.Marinos (h) and Oita Trinita (a) to be dealt with as the COVID-19 affected schedule really starts to bite.

Kashima come into this clash in 6th place in the standings with 33 points from 20 games, Gamba are a place below them, a point worse off, but importantly with two games in hand. Thus a home win on Saturday night would put the Nerazzurri ahead of Antlers with 2 fewer games played, something that would likely prove crucial with the upcoming avalanche of games in mind.

Kashima started the season poorly under new Brazilian head-coach Zago and took just 12 points from their opening 12 fixtures. However, after their 1-1 draw with Gamba back in August they went on a 7 game winning streak which was only abruptly halted by Oita last weekend, they have picked up 21 points in their most recent 8 games. They’ve lost 7 times in J1 this year which has already equalled their total losses for the whole of 2019, though in fairness that was the least number of league games they’d lost in a calendar year since 2010 (6). Defensively things haven’t been too pretty for the Ibaraki side this campaign, letting in 1.35 goals per game which contrasts with the meagre 0.88 conceded in 2019, indeed their overall goals against total in 2020 is only three shy of last year despite having played 14 fewer fixtures.

With 4 wins and 5 defeats in Suita this year Gamba have already eclipsed their total number of home defeats suffered in 2019 (4), this has been balanced out by an excellent record on the road where they’ve won 6, drawn 2 and lost only 1 of their games. The 6 wins is already 1 better than in the previous campaign while the 20 points accrued equals last season’s haul, but has been earned in 8 fewer matches. Kashima have won their past 5 away league games and they last tasted defeat outside of Ibaraki in a 1-0 loss to Yokohama FC on August 19th. Looking at their away results in detail the only real pattern we can see is that, like their campaign as a whole, things have steadily improved over time. Impressive road wins over Oita (4-1), Nagoya (3-1), Kashiwa (3-2) and FC Tokyo, Shimizu and Cerezo (2-1) have been balanced out by losses at Hiroshima (3-0), Kawasaki (2-1) and Urawa, Shonan and Yokohama FC (all 1-0), those latter two being the only ones that particularly stand out as poor results.

I may come across as overly critical of Gamba on this blog, so I think it’s important to set this season’s performance to date in the context of recent years. The Nerazzurri have kicked off 2020 with 10 wins from 18 league fixtures giving them a win ratio of 55.6% which far exceeds the 35.3% last year, 41.2% in 2018 and 32.4% the season before that. We have to go back to 2016 when Gamba won exactly half of their regular season fixtures for a comparable performance, let’s home the upcoming deluge of matches doesn’t derail things.

I know this preview is a bit stat heavy, but I feel I covered a lot of other factors related to the recent history between these two teams in my preview for the game back in August, I’d like to point you in the direction of that if you are keen to read up more on Zago and the Antlers players likely to be in contention for a starting spot for this one. You can find it here…

Head to Head

It’s only a little over a month since these two drew 1-1 at the Kashima Stadium back on August 23rd. Kosuke Onose’s early opener was cancelled out in the final minute of additional time at the end of the game by a header from Tomoya Inukai, though many neutrals may have argued that Antlers deserved more on the balance of play.

The first time I watched Gamba play live in J1 live was actually at home to Kashima on an abnormally cold April afternoon back in 2014, the visitors were victorious 2-0 and I had their “woooooah Kashima” song stuck in my head for about 6 months after that. Later that year, Lins Lima gave Gamba a memorable 3-2 win in Ibaraki, a result that proved crucial in the title race. More recently, the past 4 games between this pair have all finished level, Ryotaro Meshino announcing himself with a fine strike in last year’s home match stands out in particular.

Team News

Gamba Osaka

No new injury worries for Gamba, Yuji Ono (knee) is out for the year, while captain Genta Miura is expected to be on the sidelines for a decent amount of time with a thigh injury. Last I heard Shinya Yajima (ankle) was expected back in October, though it’s not been confirmed exactly when yet. Takashi Usami should be raring to go for this one after starting on the bench in the previous two games.

Kashima Antlers

Right-back Rikuto Hirose injured his hamstring in the home game against Gamba and hasn’t been seen since. Key attacker Shoma Doi has missed the past couple of matches, though I haven’t seen any injury reported and experienced forward Sho Ito hasn’t been involved recently, I’m not sure if that’s fitness related or Zago just not fancying him.

Predicted Line Ups

Gamba Osaka
The solid defensive performance in the last game at Hiroshima will certainly have given proponents of Gamba playing with a 4-4-2 formation plenty of ammunition. I’d expect the best eleven available to start this Saturday and next with maybe a few changes at Tosu in midweek. Yajima will hopefully be back at some point in October to help out Ideguchi and Yamamoto in midfield, but for this game the only potential differences between my lineup and the actual one would likely be Yuya Fukuda playing either at full-back or right-wing and possibly Ademilson starting ahead of Patric.

Kashima Antlers
New kantoku Zago has rotated and switched things about quite a bit so I’m not too confident in my lineup below. If Shoma Doi isn’t fit for selection we could see either Ryotaro Araki or Itsuki Someno get the nod. Elsewhere Daiki Sugioka is a rotation option at left-back, Koki Machida started the season as first choice centre-back before losing his spot to Sekigawa and the experienced Ryota Nagaki can play either right-back or in central midfield.

Match Prediction

Gamba have yet to draw at home in 2020, Kashima are yet to draw away, the last 4 games between these 2 have all been draws, regular readers of my previews will know I love a 1-1 pre-match prediction. I’m tempted to go for a 1-0 in either direction, but can’t say which way so I’ll stick with my tried and trusted 1-1, a result which would probably suit Gamba more than Kashima.


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