Gamba Osaka vs Kashiwa Reysol 24 October 2020 Match Preview

Gamba Osaka vs Kashiwa Reysol
J1 2020 Round 24
Panasonic Stadium Suita
Saturday 24 October 16:00 (JST)

The Lowdown

Gamba come into this match 4th in the J1 standings while Kashiwa are 4 places and 8 points behind with both sides having played 23 games. Reysol, who will go head-to-head with FC Tokyo in the Levain Cup Final next month, have already defeated Gamba twice this season, winning 1-0 at Panasonic Stadium in the group stages of the League Cup back in February before inflicting the only away loss Gamba have suffered so far this year, a resounding 3-0 triumph on September 9th.

Gamba’s win at Oita last weekend took them onto an impressive 29 away points which is actually more than 6 J1 teams’ total points haul for the year. In Suita things have been a bit more dicey with 5 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats, however the Nerazzurri’s schedule has been a touch top heavy and Reysol are the highest ranked side yet to visit Panasonic Stadium this year. Indeed, all of Gamba’s remaining visitors (Kobe, Sapporo, Tosu, Shimizu, Sendai) currently lie in the bottom half of the standings. With 45 total points this season the Nerazzurri require just a solitary victory in their 11 remaining fixtures to eclipse last season’s tally of 47. Protecting leads has been a big factor in this revival. My often quoted stat is that this year Gamba are 14-2-0 in games where they’ve led at any point, now contrast this with 2019 when they drew 11 of their 34 J1 fixtures including 7 matches where they let a lead slip (5 of these came consecutively between rounds 20-24!). More damaging was the 5 times that teams came from behind to defeat Gamba last season, this has been completely eradicated in the 23 rounds so far in 2020, an achievement worthy of a mention.

Kashiwa, like Gamba and a few other J1 teams, have enjoyed more success on the road than at home during this turbulent campaign. 20 of their 37 league points have been earned outside of Chiba and we can also see a clear difference between their attacking and defensive performances depending on match location. On home turf they score 2.17 goals per game with an average of 1.92 being conceded, however, away from home things are less free-flowing with an average score of 1.7-1.09 in their favour. They have won 6 games on opposition soil this year and lost 3 times, once to Kawasaki, which shouldn’t come as a surprise, but the other 2 defeats, at Tosu and Shonan are greater causes for concern.

Overall, Reysol possess the joint 3rd (level with Kobe who’ve played an additional 4 games) most potent attack in the league, slamming in 45 at 1.96 per match. Forward duo Michael Olunga and Ataru Esaka have 30 of those goals between them (more than 6 J1 teams’ totals), by way of contrast, Gamba’s attacking quartet of Usami, Patric, Ademilson and Watanabe have bagged a combined total of 20 goals. In Takashi Usami, Gamba have J1’s leading chance creator with 57 final passes to his name, Kashiwa’s Esaka is in third place on that list with 51.

Defence is undoubtedly Reysol’s achilles heel, though admittedly injury problems which have necessitated a series of personnel and positional switches throughout the year haven’t helped. They’ve conceded 10 goals more than Gamba so far in 2020 and ahead of them only Yokohama F.Marinos have a leakier rearguard, though with Reysol only being 4 points behind the defending champions with 4 games in hand we can expect to see them move up a place sooner or later. Kashiwa supporters must be eagerly anticipating the return of Avispa Fukuoka captain Takumi Kamijima, an academy graduate currently excelling out on loan, with the hope that he can steady the ship at the back. Reysol have conceded exactly 3 goals on 7 occasions this year (though only twice once away), which is pretty shocking for a team as high in the standings as they are, to counter that though they have scored three goals or more 9 times this season (including 3 times on their travels).

Head to Head

As you can see in the graphic below, Kashiwa have proven a tough nut for Gamba to crack in recent years with their last home win in this fixture coming way back in 2015. I was there for what might well prove to be my only visit to Panasonic Stadium in 2020 back in February when Reysol ran out 1-0 winners in the Levain Cup. That the goal was scored by Olunga and assisted by Cristiano should surprise no-one, however, at the other end Kim Seung-gyu had to be in outstanding form in order to earn a clean sheet as Gamba spent most of the second half camped in Kashiwa’s defensive third.

Team News

Gamba Osaka

Injury problems are starting to mount up for Gamba as a result of their intense recent schedule of matches. Yuji Ono (knee) and Genta Miura (thigh) are both long-term absentees while it’s been reported that Hiroki Fujiharu sustained a concussion in the game against Tosu on October 7th and no date has yet been set for his return. Gen Shoji re-injured his ankle against Yokohama F.Marinos on October 14th and we’re still waiting to hear how long he will be out for. In more positive news, stand-in captain Shu Kurata will make his 300th J1 appearance in his match.

Kashiwa Reysol

Reysol have one of the biggest squads in the league and it’s just as well as they’ve been plagued by injuries all year. Centre-back Yuji Takahashi is out for the season with knee ligament damage as is impressive young midfielder Sachiro Toshima who suffered a horrific leg break against Yokohama F.Marinos. International goalkeeper Kosuke Nakamura hasn’t featured since being subbed off with a leg muscle injury against Shimizu on September 5th and influential attacking midfielder Yusuke Segawa has been out since being taken off at half-time of the 3-2 win at Kobe on August 19th. Brazilian wide-man Matheus Savio had to go off in the first half of the 3-2 home defeat by Kashima on August 29th and experienced centre-back Yuta Someya was last in the squad for the home game with Shonan on July 18th. The versatile Masatoshi Mihara picked up his 4th yellow card of the year in the 3-2 loss at Bellmare on Sunday so will miss this game through suspension, while full-back Shunki Takahashi returns after sitting out the previous game due to his second red-card of the campaign. Club captain Hidekazu Otani and veteran centre-back Jiro Kamata have missed the past 3 and 4 games respectively and ex-Gamba forward Hiroto Goya hasn’t been in the squad for the last 3 matches. Utility defender Taiyo Koga, the sole mainstay at the heart of Kashiwa’s defence this year missed the 3-2 loss at Shonan, whether he was rested or injured, I’m not sure.

Predicted Line Ups

Gamba only have to play 3 games in a week twice more this season, so we are likely to see the best available players selected for every match from now on. For my lineup below I’ve assumed that both Shoji and Fujiharu will miss out through injury, I’d say, if fit, Shoji will definitely replace Suganuma to try and combat the threat of Olunga. Elsewhere, Yajima could take Yamamoto’s place in the middle of the park and I’m pretty confident that Usami and Patric will be the starting attacking duo, particularly in light of Kashiwa’s poor defending of crosses against Shonan.

Reysol’s lineup and formation will basically come down to who’s fit and who’s out. I’ve gone with the assumption that Koga was rested last week so will return for this clash, if not, expect Tatsuya Yamashita to partner Ominami at centre-back. Mihara’s suspension has caused some issues in central midfield, if Otani is available he will surely partner Richardson, Yusuke Kobayashi and Yuto Yamada are alternatives, but both have been largely overlooked for most of the campaign. Another possibility with the personnel I’ve chosen is for a 4-3-3 with Richardson at the base of the midfield flanked by Kamiya and Nakama while Olunga leads the attack with Cristiano and Esaka either side of him.

Match Prediction

Despite Gamba’s recent record against Reysol, I’m feeling in bullish mood ahead of this clash so after taking the inevitable Olunga goal into consideration I’ll say Gamba will run out 2-1 winners.


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