Gamba Osaka vs Júbilo Iwata 29 October 2022 Match Preview

Gamba Osaka vs Júbilo Iwata
2022 J1 Season Round 33
Saturday 29 October 2022
Panasonic Stadium Suita
Kick Off: 15:00 (JST)

Seventeenth hosts eighteenth in the penultimate round of J1 2022 this weekend with both sides knowing that anything other than a win is simply not good enough. A 5th home victory of the year for second-to-last Gamba would likely see them head into the final day outside the automatic drop-zone, however, anything less leaves the Ao to Kuro relying on Shonan, Kyoto, Fukuoka and S-Pulse slipping up. Júbilo’s equation is crystal-clear, lose or draw and they are down. As if the prospect of all that wasn’t tantalising enough, you’ve also got Japanese footballing icon Yasuhito Endo returning to Suita for the first time since his move to Júbilo in mid-2020, to add fuel to the fire. The match itself is unlikely to be pretty and it’s certainly not going to be for the faint of heart, but if it’s drama, passion and sheer nail-biting tension you’re after then Panasonic Stadium Suita is the place to be this Saturday afternoon.

As a brief aside, I recently teamed up with the excellent @The94thMin to put out an article about Gamba’s past, present and future for his “The Club Scene” blog series, you can check it out here if you haven’t already. Last week I also wrote about 15 gifted rookies who’ve appeared in J1 this year while name-dropping some of the most exciting talents that will be joining top-tier professional sides in 2023. Please click on the link here to read that, it’s a long one, but hopefully a good one.

Tale of the Tape

I know it seems like the Marinos vs Gamba game happened months ago, but I took copious amounts of notes, so I guess I should make a brief attempt at summarising them here. Also, having now won 3 times in-a-row at Nissan Stadium, if I were running Gamba I’d be seriously considering contacting Marinos regarding a stadium share from next season, either that or Saitama Stadium, another venue where the blue and blacks get all the breaks. The Nerazzurri, to their credit, worked incredibly hard throughout their visit to Kanagawa and put up some good numbers against Marinos, outrunning their hosts by ½ a kilometre, as well as, rather surprisingly, outsprinting them by 26. As is often the case, people tend to want to overlook Marinos’ defensive flaws in favour of their tremendous attacking prowess. However, after giving away slack goals to Gamba in the opening 10 minutes of both fixtures this year plus maxing out their luck at Panasonic Stadium over the past few seasons, they’re getting little sympathy from me for taking nothing from this tussle. 702 completed passes without a goal to show for it (they followed that up with 683 in their home defeat to Júbilo a few days later) highlights how much side-to-side, non-threatening passing took place and despite outshooting their visitors by a ratio of 3:1, it was the Nerazzurri who had the higher xG per shot, and things could have gotten better for them had Rihito Yamamoto taken his golden opportunity to make it 3-0 late on, though even I would have to admit that such a scoreline would have severely flattered the men from north Osaka. With such a backs-to-the-wall display following Juan Alano’s early opener (it didn’t pass Gamba fans by that Eduardo, who turned down a move to Suita last winter, was guilty of playing everyone onside for both goals), there were naturally numerous defensive heroes. Inevitably ‘guardian deity’ (haven’t whipped that one out for a while) Masaaki Higashiguchi was chief among them with 8 saves to follow on from an equally impressive display at home to Kashiwa a week prior. The midfield four did an immense job of keeping their shape when Marinos were in possession, between them they won 4 out of 4 tackles attempted, made 22 clearances and 12 blocks as well as recovering possession on 21 occasions. Juan Alano, an absolute stud since his summer move from Antlers, made 8 blocks and 8 possession recoveries while compatriot Dawhan, recalled to the starting eleven in place of the suspended Mitsuki Saito was responsible for 13 clearances, 2 blocks and 3 possession recoveries as well as winning the 1 tackle he attempted. All of this allowed centre-backs Miura and Shoji to sit in the pocket and sweep up the loose ends, with that duo making a combined total of 19 clearances and 5 blocks between them. The triumvirate of Higashiguchi, Miura and Shoji looks to be much rejuvenated since Hiroshi Matsuda took charge and made focusing on defensive stability more of a priority than his predecessors did. Matsuda has been caretaker boss for 8 rounds and in that time Gamba have picked up 1.38 points per game, averaging one goal per match and conceding at a clip of 1.25 goals per 90 minutes which contrasts with the 0.88 points, 0.96 goals for and 1.46 goals against seen during Tomohiro Katanosaka’s 24 game reign. All in all, the Ao to Kuro’s 50.21xG against is the worst defensive total in J1 and their 32.62xG for is the second poorest attacking record, a mere 0.07 better than Shonan. To sum up, Matsuda has slowly but surely got things moving in the right direction, it’s also worth remembering for everyone claiming Marinos dominated and should have beaten Gamba comfortably that the Nerazzurri have the players to complete more passes and take more shots on goal than they did, but instead they opted to sit back and soak up pressure after getting the opening goal they so desperately craved. Marinos, on the other hand, could be more solid defensively, however, they generally tend to go for the jugular, focusing on themselves and not taking into account opposition tactics (publicly at least) which leaves them vulnerable to ambush from time to time, I guess you might say it’s the yin and the yang of football. Why am I talking about all of this? Well, Júbilo are clearly a completely different kettle of fish to Marinos and thus Matsuda will need to come up with an entirely new battle-plan for Saturday. He’s had plenty of time to do just that, now can his troops exorcise the ghosts of the past few years of harrowing home defeats and take a giant step towards avoiding automatic relegation to J2?

Before I get my teeth into some Júbilo stats, let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way shall we? The club have been handed a transfer ban from FIFA which covers this winter and next summer’s windows. The ruling came as a result of alleged wrongdoing by Júbilo and their Colombian forward Fabián González in breaking his contract with a Thai side prior to moving to Japan last year. Iwata already have the oldest squad in J1, so being unable to bring in fresh talent from outside will surely hit them hard (I’ll look into this more in the ‘Júbilo Iwata’ section below). With that gut-punch dealt with, let’s get cracking with some stats, and spoiler alert, things aren’t about to get any rosier from a Júbilo perspective. Current kantoku Hiroki Shibuya stepped up from the role of head coach after previous incumbent Akira Ito was fired in the wake of a 6-0 home mauling at the hands of Urawa in mid-August. Maintaining the 3-4-2-1 shape used by several of his predecessors, Shibuya has overseen a run of 1 win, 2 losses and 4 draws in his 7 games in charge, which, while not terrible, certainly hasn’t been anywhere near enough to stop the rot and the Saxon Blues remain rooted to the foot of the J1 standings, a position they’ve occupied since their coaching change. While results have been nothing to write home about in general, away form has been particularly poor. Their recent shock win at table topping Yokohama F. Marinos was their first outside of Shizuoka since early March when they routed 10-man Kyoto 4-1. Young Yosuke Furukawa was the spark for improved outcomes away to Marinos and in last weekend’s derby at Shimizu, contributing a goal and an assist across the two games, as well as squandering a golden opportunity to grab a priceless winner at S-Pulse. With that said, it’s worth noting that Iwata netted only 3 times on the road in 11 fixtures during the 6 months encompassing April to September. On average Júbilo concede one more than they score every time they take to an opponent’s field of play, and this number has not been helped one iota by their large underperformance relative to their xG for tally. The Saxon Blues have scored 5.64 times less than expected based on the quality of chances they’ve created, while defensively actual goals conceded and xG against are relatively equal. Overall, Júbilo’s 55 goals given up is the worst in J1, 4 more than Sapporo, their nearest rivals in that category and that tally is 7.32 higher than their xG against figure for all 32 games played to date. Going forward, replacing the prolific Lukian with Kenyu Sugimoto, who only bagged his first league goal of the season, a penalty, a couple of weeks ago against Kashima, has been hugely costly and the fact that wing-back Yuto Suzuki is still their top scorer with 6, despite netting just once since mid-April, tells it’s own story. To sum up then, this is unequivocally Júbilo’s last chance, so from that perspective they’ve got nothing to lose and should throw the kitchen sink at Gamba. Alternatively, mindful of their hosts’ equal need for a positive outcome and also their pretty dreadful recent run of results at home, particularly against sides that sit off them, would it be more prudent for Shibuya to set-up his charges to play on the counter and sucker punch Gamba in the way that Tosu, Shimizu and Shonan have done this year?

First Match Recap

As with most recent meetings between these two, the round 4 clash at Yamaha Stadium back in March ended up being a draw. Just a week on from losing talismanic attacker Takashi Usami to long-term injury, Gamba were slow out of the blocks and a Nerazzurri old boy made them pay. Kotaro Omori’s low shot from the edge of the area in the 15th minute beat the despairing dive of Kei Ishikawa to round off a flowing move from the hosts. That was as good as it got for Júbilo though, as they were second best for most of the remainder of proceedings. With that said, despite Gamba huffing and puffing and almost winning a penalty when Yamami was felled, but a Patric handball in the lead up denied them a spot kick, they had to wait until the 88th minute before parity was restored. Genta Miura, of all people, popped up on the right wing and delivered an inch perfect cross which was met by a glancing header from Leandro Pereira to earn the Ao to Kuro a point, sending them back to Suita sitting 9th in the standings.

Gamba Osaka

More good news for 2024 – On October 12th, Gamba announced their second new signing for the 2024 season (NB: 2024 is not a typo) in the shape of Kwansei Gakuin University hotshot Rin Mito. Capable of operating as a left-sided midfielder or wing-back and also as a holding-midfielder, Mito, who played just behind Hiroto Yamami in Kwansei Gakuin’s loss to Gamba in last year’s Emperor’s Cup, is extremely highly thought of in varsity football circles. Nerazzurri supporters have been speculating that the captures of Mito and Hosei University left-back Ibuki Konno suggest that Gamba’s front office are looking to play in a 4-3-3 system in the coming years. Second grade high-school student Keita Izumi (also a left-back) has been making waves with Gamba Youth this term and could also join the top-team in 2024, giving whoever is the kantoku at that time plenty of options. Finally, just a quick note, I previously wrote that Kwansei Gakuin’s Ken Masui was a potential target for Gamba after it was rumoured the Ao to Kuro were chasing a midfielder from KGU. My speculation was wrong as Masui will go back to his old ‘nest’ Grampus and it’s his current team-mate Mito who will move to Suita.

Fan events back up and running – A couple of interesting pieces of fan-service related news from here in Osaka. A watch-along party took place in Umekita Sotoniwa Square, Umeda for the Marinos vs Gamba clash, with former club legends Akira Kaji and Hideo Hashimoto taking part, I’m sure a good time was had by all given the final outcome. Also, on October 12th, Gamba held their first completely open training session since the start of the pandemic. By completely open, I mean anyone could attend, not just fan club members who won a lottery. The fan club members weren’t forgotten about though as, Yuki Yamamoto, Keisuke Kurokawa, Isa Sakamoto, Hiroto Yamami and Jiro Nakamura participated in a signing event for lottery winners in the club’s Blu Spazio shop next to gate 1 at Panasonic Stadium. It appears these open sessions will continue to be a weekly event, I’m looking forward to one being scheduled on a Sunday or Monday so I can attend.

The Higashiguchi-Nishikawa bromance – They may keep goal for rival teams on the field, but following their years together with the Samurai Blue, it’s clear that there’s a tremendous amount of respect between Masaaki Higashiguchi and his Urawa Reds counterpart Shusaku Nishikawa. Nishikawa took to Twitter to comment on a video showing an excellent save from Higashiguchi in the second half of the 2-0 win at Marinos, simply stating ‘sasuga,’ or…[my translation] ’as you’d expect from a great ‘keeper like Higashiguchi.’ It came across as a really classy touch from the former Oita and Hiroshima custodian.

The Yamamoto conundrum – Following Rihito Yamamoto’s summer move from Tokyo Verdy, there were some moans from members of the Gamba support who had bought ’29 Yamamoto’ uniforms pre-season, only to see it changed to ’29 Y. Yamamoto’ half-way through the year, but for me it’s brought on a more pressing issue. Yukimoto and Rihimoto or Yukito and Rihito, how should I best shorten their names to make my life easier than constantly using Yuki Yamamoto and Rihito Yamamoto?

Attack-dog Alano – This may actually be the first recorded use of bad language in my blogging career, but I feel like Juan Alano has brought over just the right amount of ‘shithousery’ from masters of the dark arts Kashima. The combative Brazilian winger has made quite the impression on the Gamba support since his summer switch and recently told a Brazilian sports website that he felt he’d made the right move in joining the Nerazzurri. He, Kesiuke Kurokawa and Patric are all walking a suspension tight-rope, so that trio will have to be extremely cautious against Júbilo, not least Alano who’ll surely be hoping to make Antlers pay for their decision to let him go when Gamba head to the Kashima Soccer Stadium on the final day of the season .

‘Tis the season to be silly – In the wake of the Ienaga ‘rumour’ I mentioned last time, we’ve seen Yosuke Ideguchi and Ademilson linked with moves back to Panasta and fans suggesting the club try to re-patriate Hiroyuki Abe following his screamer and celebratory dance away to FC Tokyo the other week. Furthermore, Higashiguchi to Niigata has surfaced in the murky depths of Twitter, I’m not having any of that though as Albirex already have a fine young ‘keeper of their own, in the shape of Ryosuke Kojima. One story that may have a bit more truth to it is Shoji Toyama returning to Gamba after spending the past 18 months out on loan. A double in Mito’s last-gasp 3-2 win at Tochigi preceded comments suggesting that he preferred the Osaka Derby to it’s Kita-Kanto equivalent, if that’s not a come and get me plea then I don’t know what is.

The end of an era – On Monday 24 October, Gamba confirmed that they’d be ending their kit-supplier partnership with Umbro that first started in 2003. Sports Hochi reported the same day that Hummel would replace Umbro from next year, though the club themselves are still keeping schtum on that matter. Furthermore, a couple of commemorative t-shirts are now available from the Gamba online shop displaying each Umbro home and away jersey from the 2003-2022 run. I’ve ordered the black version which shows home tops only, I’m hoping it’ll be here for Christmas.

And finally….popular Japanese singer Fujii Kaze became the first person to appear in concert at Panasonic Stadium since it opened in 2016. The Okayama native performed on the evenings of October 15 and 16. Parts of the pitch have subsequently been re-laid and in theory the playing surface should be fine for Saturday, let’s hope that is in fact the case.

Team News

The following players are doubts for this fixture and / or have an important status announcement regarding their availability.

FW Patric – Missed training for two weeks after going off versus Marinos and having his leg strapped while he sat on the bench. Since returning, he’s been working through a separate menu to his team-mates as per Matsuda kantoku‘s comments on Tuesday 25 October. In theory he’s ready to play some part on Saturday, though how big a role remains to be seen.

Juan Alano, Shu Kurata, Keisuke Kurokawa, Kosuke Onose and Patric are all just a single caution shy of reaching the one-match ban threshold.

Predicted Lineups and Stats

Júbilo Iwata

Considering they’ve just been slapped with a two window transfer ban, it seems likely that the summer signing of former S-Pulse full-back Ko Matsubara from Sint-Truidense in Belgium will be Iwata’s last senior acquisition until the winter of 2023/2024. What effect will this have on a club that’s already struggling to avoid falling into the yo-yo category? In the short-term, centre-forward Shu Morooka (Tokyo International University) is going to need to find a new team as his pre-contract deal is now off the table. Also in attack, Kenyu Sugimoto will have to return to his parent club Urawa, though given how he’s performed this season, it seems likely he’ll be loaned out again, perhaps to a Shonan, Kyoto or Fukuoka. The Saxon Blues have 7 players currently out on loan to lower league sides, but Chelsea they are not, and perhaps only centre-back Kaito Suzuki (Tochigi) is ready to return and make an immediate impact. Júbilo already have the oldest squad in J1, so another season of having to rely on the likes of Yasuhito Endo (42), Kentaro Oi (38), Hiroki Yamada and Kosuke Yamamoto (both 33) plus Yuki Otsu (32) may see them creak to the point of breaking. Hailing from Shizuoka, the cradle of Japanese football, Júbilo are able to attract and develop plenty of young talents of their own. 190cm high school second grader Keita Goto, scorer of 9 goals in this year’s Prince Takamado Under-18 competition, will be promoted to the top-team for 2023, something which is permitted despite the FIFA sanctions, the pain will be felt further down the chain as they won’t be able to register new players to their youth teams from now until the end of next year either. Iwata will need to hope Goto swims rather than sinks and combines with the aforementioned Furukawa (19) as well as Kensuke Fujiwara (18) and Mahiro Yoshinaga (20) to build a brighter tomorrow for Júbilo.

Team News

The following players are doubts for this fixture and / or have an important status announcement regarding their availability.

DF Daiki Ogawa – Has been absent for the most recent 6 J1 fixtures and last saw action in the 1-0 loss to Nagoya on 19 August.

DF Norimichi Yamamoto – Currently sitting on three yellow cards, one more here would see him miss the final day encounter with Kyoto.

MF Kotaro Omori – The former Gamba treble winner injured his thigh muscle in the 2-2 draw with Kashiwa Reysol on 3 September and is out for the season.

MF Rikiya Uehara – Suspended after picking up his 4th yellow card of the season in last week’s draw with Shimizu.

FW Fabián González – Suspended for 4 months due to what has been deemed to be an illegal transfer. It’s now in the hands of the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) who may say otherwise and ultimately shorten his ban.

Predicted Lineups and Stats

Thanks for reading and enjoy the game whoever you are supporting.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s